Writing

Essays, market notes, and posts on AI and the compute economy — newest first.

Read about Kelly Johnson recently, and this hit a cord as I spend more time in the compute supply chain: Johnson ran Lockheed's Skunk Works and designed 40+ aircrafts. His rule: one miracle per program. Everything else had to use proven tech and off-the-shelf parts. He treated
X
Jul 31, 2026
The winning data broker for AI labs won't be the best matchmaker. It'll be the best balance sheet. Labs pay net 60-90. Small data suppliers can't float that. We saw this in freight brokerage: quickpay started as a feature and became the moat. Carriers route loads to whoever
X
Jul 23, 2026
Bosnian had weak ankle…but we’re through 🦅🇺🇸🌎 #worldcup #futbol #usmnt https://t.co/dEP3bCTUGI
X
Jul 2, 2026
Claude isn't eating vertical apps. It's flooding them. Vertical SaaS startups are some of its biggest customers. Claude is incentivized to automate so much of the underlying workflow that every vertical is saturated with startups built on Claude. Voice agents for the trades was
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May 17, 2026
Dinner w/ Harvard founders ('17-'25) last night, 43% use only Claude; 29% use only Cursor, rest on Claude + Codex. Hottest take at the table: strong IPOs will let labs overextend. Public market pressure will force them to increase cost of tokens, leading to a "correction".
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May 15, 2026
Unique analogy from a founder: AI coding is stuck at Level 2 automation: impressive enough that devs stop checking, not reliable enough to stop checking. The same trap that plagued early self-driving. Self-driving is now at Level 4. What level are we striving for in software dev?
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Apr 1, 2026
341K companies. $1.9T in IT spend managed. 1 Accenture. Others found a niche and never left. Picking the right wedge in AI IT services has never mattered more. https://t.co/pEOzRzU4z2
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Mar 31, 2026
Enterprises spent a decade consolidating their data. Then they adopted a dozen AI tools in 12 months and fragmented it all over again. The rebundling has begun...and the frontrunners are selling unified platforms to the C-suite, not point solutions to departments.
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Mar 28, 2026
From Pilots to Platforms: Picks for '26
2026 is when the rubber hits the road on enterprise AI strategy.
Redpoint
Jan 14, 2026
Design at the Speed of AI
Company building is moving faster than ever — and designers must keep up.
LinkedIn
Sep 18, 2025
Cracks in the Checkout: Big Debates in Agentic Commerce
Agent tokenization, “Know Your Agent,” and payments over MCP.
LinkedIn
Sep 2, 2025
When Bots Outnumber Humans: The Case for Bot Tolls
Non-human traffic is overwhelming the internet — and accelerating the need to price it.
Substack
Apr 2, 2025
Dear OpenAI, My Agent Needs Its Own Wallet
Our digital identity infrastructure isn't ready for agents. Providers should lead in building agent wallets.
Substack
Jan 30, 2025
check out my new blog post here: https://t.co/MysBaVRim7
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Jun 19, 2024
With 71% of Americans using rewards credit cards, and tools like Kudos and Google Wallet helping maximize points, these perks are bound to soar. But as merchants push back on the fees that fund these programs, how sustainable are these credit card rewards?
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Jun 19, 2024